Unspecified case location in 70% of UK cases

Until 2 July, Public Health England gave case location in only about 30% of cases. The location for the other 70% was unspecified. This caused problems for local public health specialists trying to track local clusters.

Public Health England (PHE) publishes data on the covid-19 epidemic each day on a web page [1].

The web page gives the total UK new cases, and a breakdown by the four nations (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland). It also gives a breakdown of the England total by region and by local authority.

Until 2 July, the web page warned that the number of new cases "includes tests carried out by commercial partners which are not included in the 4 National totals". In fact the cases that were not included amounted to around 70% of the total. This can be calculated from the day-to-day increases by adding the four nation figures, and subtracting this from the UK figure - see the appendix for some typical data.

It was clear that the cases on which the location was unspecified were all of the "Pillar 2" tests, which are done by the labs run by the privatised testing service, and that these test results are not sent to the individual's GP or the local authority - see the Health Service Journal article [2].

Anecdotally, the swabs sent out for the Pillar 2 tests are sent with a form that asks for National Insurance number, but does not ask for NHS number [3]. This seems to be a major blunder - collation of patient results within the NHS depends on the NHS number.

The chart shows the variation over time in the proportions.

It is worth remembering that only a fraction of cases are confirmed by testing, so the true numbers of cases is several times these figures.

The failure to share location information has caused problems for local public health specialists trying to track local clusters [4].

If PHE had the information, why wasn't it published?

References

[1]	Public Health England https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

[2]	Health Service Journal (12 May 2020) https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/exclusive-test-data-from-commercial-labs-going-into-black-hole/7027619.article

[3]	https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1263752516191301634

[4]	The Guardian (23 June 2020) https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/23/no-10-not-sharing-covid-19-data-on-local-outbreaks-say-councils

Appendix

New cases of covid-19 in the UK reported by Public Health England. Numbers are obtained from the daily reports by subtraction of the previous day's figures.

Date	Total UK	England	Scotland	Wales	Northern Ireland	Unspecified	Proportion unspecified
April 9	4344	3798	392	16	138	0	0%
10	5195	4263	318	502	112	0	0%
11	4623	3841	315	339	128	0	0%
12	4450	3672	322	367	89	0	0%
13	3543	2999	155	313	76	0	0%
14	10714	3854	291	238	85	6246	58%
15	4577	3188	390	270	121	608	13%
16	4586	3118	354	283	113	718	16%
17	5561	3985	307	244	137	888	16%
18	5478	3548	411	291	148	1080	20%
19	5793	3607	367	334	159	1326	23%
20	4607	2401	263	276	83	1584	34%
21	4274	3087	222	304	30	631	15%
22	4423	3020	366	274	116	647	15%
23	4552	3084	371	234	142	721	16%
24	5314	3004	288	243	106	1673	31%
25	4858	2826	354	299	104	1275	26%
26	4389	2152	273	178	82	1704	39%
27	4243	2264	197	202	66	1514	36%
28	3932	1989	200	232	34	1477	38%
29	3985	1403	313	117	55	2097	53%
30	5909	2484	319	183	73	2850	48%
May 1	6061	2271	301	160	87	3242	53%
2	4721	2228	273	183	66	1971	42%
3	4260	2019	170	174	78	1819	43%
4	3899	1485	169	195	69	1981	51%
5	4315	1842	171	145	45	2112	49%
6	5942	1611	272	95	53	3911	66%
7	5484	2133	215	87	50	2999	55%
8	4544	1694	225	152	38	2435	54%
9	3804	1349	156	118	56	2125	56%
10	3820	1007	181	223	41	2368	62%
11	3765	891	141	124	30	2579	69%
12	3318	1067	136	105	44	1966	59%
13	3170	1146	166	133	60	1665	53%
14	3367	1189	188	128	38	1824	54%
15	3471	1112	143	126	26	2064	59%
16	3371	1136	187	182	40	1826	54%
17	3430	788	90	162	0	2390	70%
18	2641	816	57	100	44	1624	61%
19	2358	857	61	166	20	1254	53%
20	2472	824	96	110	18	1424	58%
21	2615	854	105	166	42	1448	55%
22	3287	1083	113	138	23	1930	59%
23	2959	979	72	185	41	1682	57%
24	2405	584	60	140	25	1596	66%
25	1625	494	55	106	39	931	57%
26	4043	492	29	141	28	3353	83%
27	2013	609	55	97	26	1226	61%
28	1887	519	48	72	16	1232	65%
29	2095	560	39	102	17	1377	66%
30	1730	0	55	86	13	1576	91%
31	1810	194	18	82	7	1509	83%
1 Jun	1570	294	18	59	12	1187	76%
2	1653	444	53	67	4	1085	66%
3	1871	462	33	82	8	1286	69%
4	1805	431	49	35	33	1257	70%
5	1650	451	29	76	3	1091	66%
6	1557	422	21	42	14	1058	68%
7	1326	228	18	40	6	1034	78%
8	1205	92	18	42	6	1047	87%
9	1741	651	14	42	3	1031	59%
10	1003	63	12	38	13	877	87%
11	1266	304	17	63	4	878	69%
12	1541	392	27	77	16	1029	67%
13	1425	372	21	45	3	984	69%
14	1514	292	25	39	7	1151	76%
15	968	219	-68	62	4	751	78%
16	1279	252	10	65	2	950	74%
17	1115	252	15	53	8	787	71%
18	1218	281	6	48	1	882	72%
19	1346	323	24	31	3	965	72%
20	1295	324	15	25	0	931	72%
21	1221	215	17	100	4	885	72%

First published: 22 May 2020
Last updated: 9 Jul 2020