Summary The toll of deaths and other consequences Deaths per day New cases per day UK "Global Death Comparison" chart UK nation and regional comparisons Poor UK Government decision making NHS/PHE labs are being denied testing reagents Unspecified case location in 70% of UK cases Problems with the covid-19 science Problems with the media and covid-19 Reasons to be concerned Reporting delays in Liverpool for covid-19 tests Action needed Elimination of the virus ("Zero covid") Elimination successes Population ("herd") immunity Countries with the best covid-19 control: half-lives of 5 days When to end the UK lockdown Predicting epidemics - Q and A R values, doubling times and halving times Data sources Data sources for covid-19.php Seven principles of public life in the UK Myths and misinformation About

Citizens of the UK, especially those living in England, should be very concerned about the covid-19 pandemic.

The epidemic is worsening

• numbers of reported cases of covid-19 are ten times higher than at the low point in July (data of 29 Sep 2020) [1]
• admissions to hospital have increased steadily [2]
• the 7-day average for the UK death rate from covid-19 is at a 4-week high [1]

The policy-making process by politicians remains very poor

• there has been no apology from the UK Government for the mistakes made and the deaths resulting
• there has been no recognition that errors were made
• there has been no change in the personnel taking decisions or in the procedures by which decisions are made
• there is no plan stating the aim of the UK Government
• the UK national Test and Trace system is chaotic with unacceptable delays for the test results - the Liverpool situation is typical: its infection rate is one of the worst and the average delay is 3 days (more here)
• the Government appears to be surprised that all the epidemic statistics are worsening, whereas it was entirely predictable from the decisions it made to relax social distancing measures and restart schools and universities in the absence of functioning local test-trace-isolate-support systems
• decisions are being made that ignore the consensus opinion of independent public health experts e.g. those of the Independent Sage Group [3]

The scientific process in establishing the facts remains flawed
The science is fragmented with a fringe group of scientists putting forward wrong information and proposals that have not been thought through. Although a minority, the ideas from this fringe group have gained much media attention, probably because of their superficial attractiveness.

Information via the media and media scrutiny of decision-making remain poor

• much misinformation is circulating on the internet.

Citizens remain largely unaware of the serious situation and Government mishandling, and are not demanding change
While public confidence in the Government has declined, there is not a clear consensus about what is needed.



First published: 14 Jul 2020
Last updated: 29 Oct 2020

Summary The toll of deaths and other consequences Deaths per day New cases per day UK "Global Death Comparison" chart UK nation and regional comparisons Poor UK Government decision making NHS/PHE labs are being denied testing reagents Unspecified case location in 70% of UK cases Problems with the covid-19 science Problems with the media and covid-19 Reasons to be concerned Reporting delays in Liverpool for covid-19 tests Action needed Elimination of the virus ("Zero covid") Elimination successes Population ("herd") immunity Countries with the best covid-19 control: half-lives of 5 days When to end the UK lockdown Predicting epidemics - Q and A R values, doubling times and halving times Data sources Data sources for covid-19.php Seven principles of public life in the UK Myths and misinformation About